This Article Full Text (PDF) References Alert me when this article is cited Alert me if a correction is posted Services Email this article to a friend Similar articles in this journal Alert me to new issues of the journal Download to citation manager Citing Articles Citing Articles via Google Scholar Google Scholar Articles by Allen, S. J. Articles by Schuster, E. W. Search for Related Content

Controlling the Risk for an Agricultural Harvest

Penn State University
MIT Auto-ID Labs, 23 Valencia Drive, Nashua, New Hampshire 03062
stuart99allen{at}yahoo.com
schuster#x0040;ed-w.info

Gathering the harvest represents a complex managerial problem for agricultural cooperatives involved in harvesting and processing operations: balancing the risk of overinvestment with the risk of underproduction. The rate to harvest crops and the corresponding capital investment are critical strategic decisions in situations where poor weather conditions present a risk of crop loss. In this article, we discuss a case study of the Concord grape harvest and develop a mathematical model to control harvest risk. The model involves differentiation of a joint probability distribution that represents risks associated with the length of the harvest season and the size of the crop. This approach is becoming popular as a means of dealing with complex problems involving operational and supply chain risk. Significant cost avoidance, in the millions of dollars, results from practical implementation of the Harvest Model. Using real data, we found that the Harvest Model provides lower-cost solutions in situations involving moderate variability in both the length of season and the crop size as compared to solutions based on imposed risk policies determined by management.

Key Words: harvest risk; agriculture
History: Received: July 30, 2002; accepted: December 12, 2003.